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FMCG
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Forecast the promotion, not just the season.

Statistical forecasting from sales history, adjusted for seasonality and — critically — for planned promotions, feeding replenishment, safety stock and purchase or production plans.

The problem

Most FMCG forecasts are built from history and then broken by a promotion nobody told the planner about. The result is a stock-out during the campaign and an overhang after it.

A forecast that reads the promotion calendar is the difference between a campaign that sells and a campaign that generates returns.

Core workflow

History to purchase plan.

01
History
Sell-in and sell-out cleansed of one-off events.
02
Baseline
Statistical forecast by SKU, channel and territory.
03
Seasonality
Seasonal and calendar effects applied.
04
Promotion overlay
Planned campaigns added to the forecast.
05
Replenishment
Days of cover, safety stock and reorder points.
06
Supply plan
Purchase or production plan with lead times.
What it covers

Forecasting

Statistical baseline by SKUChannel and territory splitSeasonality and trendPromotion-driven demandForecast accuracy tracking

Replenishment

Days of cover targetsSafety stock by velocityReorder points and min/maxDepot and van replenishmentShelf-life constrained ordering

Supply

Purchase planningProduction requirementSupplier lead timesImport and landed costAllocation on short supply
Operational outcomes
+14 pts
Forecast accuracy
+9 pts
Line fill rate
−18%
Days of inventory held
−41%
Stock-outs during promotions

Ranges observed on Al Jawad engagements. Targets agreed in assessment.

Forecast one category with the promotion calendar in it.

We rebuild twelve months of demand for one category, with and without promotion overlay, and compare accuracy.